What is the End Game in Ukraine?

What is the End Game in Ukraine? 

Putin and Russia have long claimed that the expansion of NATO poses a big problem for their domestic security and when you look at it from a purely geopolitical perspective, they are not wrong. The country of Russia is encircled by NATO nations and all of the weapons that come with it. What is left out of this narrative, however, is the reason why all of these nations joined NATO in the first place and that is historical aggression from Russia. It’s important to remember that these nations were yoked with brutal soviet control where freedom didn’t exist and where their relatives would disappear if they spoke out against the Soviets or their allies. This wasn’t ancient history to these people, this is a mere 30 years ago, so it’s a very westernized perspective to not understand what motivated the NATO expansion in the first place. That said, I find the excessive placement of nuclear capable missiles close to Russia to be bad idea, especially considering technology lets us launch nukes from anywhere on earth basically. In my opinion, this is an unneeded escalation.  

Insiders who monitor the TV programming in Russia have said that for weeks the state tv channels have been hammering home the narrative that the action within Ukraine is not a war and that is being embarked upon as an action to protect Russians in the breakaway republic who have been embroiled in an insurgency against the Ukrainian government. They have also asserted and to a degree of truth that there are neo-Nazi elements within the Ukrainian defense forces. Yet they have pushed this narrative to maximum burn on local radio and broadcasts. They have also leaned on narrative that they simply had to invade Ukraine to provide the proper level of security to the mother due to the belligerence and outward expansionism of NATO.  

While this strategy has done its job in whipping up support for the operation, it also paints Putin and Moscow into a serious corner, especially in light of the operation not going according to the plan and the Russian forces losing a lot of equipment and lives. The Russian Ministry of Defense has reported that the number of dead so far for Russia is 498 and over 1500 injured. History has shown that we should take all numbers and claims by both sides with a grain of salt however, as both sides are very cognizant of morale. It is almost shocking that they’d even admit to this many casualties. For context America had roughly 2400 KIA in Afghanistan throughout the duration. Conversely, Russia lost roughly 3 thousand troops during the war in Grozny. With all of this in mind, it’s very important to understand that Russian culture is not the kind of culture that accepts surrender or pulling back once something like this occurs. They must show strength always. It is matter of national pride, even if it’s hard for us in the west to understand.  

The Ukrainian resistant has been nothing short of miraculous. Their forces were expected to wither in the face of overbearing force brought upon them by Russia, but that has not happened. In a stunning turn, the Ukrainians have not only been able to stall the advance for a grueling week, but they have also been able to keep their air operations active, even if they have been diminished. All of these factors coming together and the horror of seeing their nation shelled by land air and sea, has brought the Ukrainian people together like never before. The arguments and fights of yesterday have all been put away and the only thing that matters now, is the survival of their nation and the defeat of the invaders. While this mindset is admirable and it is hard not to respect anyone nation or single individual who stands up to a bully, I fear that their courage is going to end up costing them to incur horrific casualties as the fighting moves deeper into the cities.  

They have said time and time again that they refuse to give in, and they will not accept anything else but a free Ukraine. This could lead to an insurgency that makes what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan look like a warmup. It would also end up becoming the first publicly sanctioned insurgency in modern history.   Considering that in Afghanistan, the funneling of weapons into the country to harm the soviet causes had to be kept under wraps, and rat lines had to be developed to bring them in, I find this to be a startling development and a strategy that I never thought we’d see play out in the open such as it has. This has not only enabled the Ukrainian forces to fight back, but it has emboldened them to dig in and keep going until the invaders are all jettisoned back across border.  

While this might seem like bravado, from what I’ve seen so far from the Ukrainian defense forces, they are highly motivated and now, they are heavily armed. This leads to a long, and drawn-out campaign and while the cost in human lives and destruction will mainly be within the borders of Ukraine, the war of public opinion that is being waged in Russia and around the world, will turn even worse for Putin as the coffins continue to come home filled with young Russian men who had their whole lives to live, but had their fire snuffed out by the game of thrones being played by the men of always. This will all just lead to a more ferocious insurgency that see’s men (and woman) streaming in from around the world, taking a page from the Jihadi playbook. Imagine what the insurgencies and Iraq and Afghanistan would have been able to do with access to western weapons such as MANPADS and NLAW’s? Soon, you will not have to imagine this if a peaceful resolution can’t be found, because this will be the reality and it will be grim and for the first time ever, it will be broadcast live and directly to you via social media.  

So, what is the end game here? How do we come to a peaceful resolution in a very complex situation that appeases everyone? That’s the hard part, isn’t it? Like any other negotiation you must give to get and when both sides are set that their motivation and their cause is righteous, it is a very difficult process to find terms that are acceptable.  

In my opinion there are a few options that might fit the bill and prove to be equitable for both sides.  

Vladmir Putin cannot afford to lose this war or to be seen as not reaching his objectives. It is simply not an option. He will decimate the whole entire country of Ukraine before this happens at this point. With the sanctions and the death grip the rest of the world has Russia in, Putin has no other choice at this point other than achieving ‘victory.’ The question is, what is victory? Would Ukraine ceding the breakaway regions and the west recognizing not only the Donbas and Luhansk regions, but Crimea as Russian territories be enough to appease Putin and give him enough to say he achieved the goals of the operation? Depending on how long this drags out, I think it might be.  

What would the Ukrainians get from all of this? They need some kind of peace guarantee, and this is where it gets sticky. How can anyone convince the Ukrainians to disarm at this point when the whole world already sat back, and a watched Russia roll in. All of that was with a functioning military and security force. What would happen if they disarmed, and Russia decided to come back? Who is going to come and rescue them? If history holds true, the answer is nobody. They would be on their own and this is the biggest problem for Ukraine in any negotiation. Who is going to enforce these parameters? So, it will be a very hard sell to get the Ukrainians to drop their weapons and cease hostilities.  

If they can find a workable plan around these parameters, I think that this might be the best way to achieve peace in the region.  

One thing is for sure, if they do not find a pathway to peace very soon, things are only going to become grimmer, and the casualties will only grow.